Baltic States 155mm Artillery Shells Market Report: Trends, Growth and Forecast (2026-2032)
By Shell Type (High-Explosive (HE/HE-FRAG) Shell, Smoke Shell, Illumination Shell, Training/Practice Shell, Other Special-Purpose Shell), By Guidance (Unguided, Precision-Guided), By Range Class (Standard Range, Extended Range, Assisted Range (Base Bleed, Rocket-Assisted (RAP))), By Operational Use (Training Consumption, Routine Peacetime Stockpile Replenishment, Active Conflict Replenishment\Urgent Operational Demand, Strategic Reserve\Surge Inventory Build), By Artillery Platform Type (Towed Howitzers, Self-Propelled Howitzers, Truck-Mounted Howitzers), By Country (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania)
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Major Players
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Baltic States 155mm Artillery Shells Market Statistics and Insights, 2026
- Market Size Statistics
- 155mm artillery shells market size in Baltic States was estimated at USD 20 million in 2025.
- The market size is expected to grow to USD 40 million by 2032.
- Market to register a CAGR of around 10.41% during 2026-32.
- Shell Type Shares
- High-explosive (he/he-frag) shell grabbed market share of 60%.
- Competition
- 155mm artillery shells in Baltic States is currently being catered to by more than 5 companies.
- Top 3 companies acquired around 80% of the market share.
- Nammo AS; Rheinmetall AG; KNDS (Nexter) etc., are few of the top companies.
- Guidance
- Unguided grabbed 85% of the market.
- Country
- Lithuania leads with a 40% share of the Baltic States market.
Baltic States 155mm Artillery Shells Market Outlook
The Baltic states 155mm artillery shells Market was valued at around USD 20 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 40 million by 2032, growing at a CAGR of approximately 10.41% from 2026 to 2032. This growth is firmly rooted in the region's record defence budgets, with Lithuania allocating 5.38% of GDP, Estonia committing to a minimum of 5%, and Latvia allocating 4.9% of GDP in 2026, thus collectively establishing a stable and long-term procurement environment that supports consistent volume purchasing and multi-year contracting.
On the supply side, the small production base in Europe, with just 15 credible ammunition manufacturers in 11 member states, continues to limit surge capacity. Nevertheless, the EU's ASAP project with a budget of €500 million and Rheinmetall's €180 million ammunition plant in Baisogala, Lithuania, are anticipated to alleviate these challenges gradually. This regionalized facility will alleviate logistics challenges and enhance supply security in the region over the forecast period.
The purchase of 155mm Artillery Shells is structurally dominated by a few prominent sub-segments. High-Explosive (HE/HE-FRAG) types currently satisfy about 60% of total shell-type purchases, prized for their flexibility in training and combat fire support roles. Unguided shells currently lead the guidance sub-segment with an 85% market share, due to cost-effectiveness, easier storage, and compatibility with existing platforms for all allied firing methods.
Lithuania currently leads the three countries with about 40% of the total market, thanks to its larger defense budget scale and the expanding regional industrial base led by the Rheinmetall-Baisogala facility. Estonia and Latvia also make significant contributions to this market, ensuring that the overall procurement base remains strong, regionally integrated, and adequately funded in the next decade.
Baltic States 155mm Artillery Shells Market Growth Driver
Escalating Defence Budgets and Strategic Stockpile Requirements Driving Market Expansion
The Baltic countries’ 155mm artillery shells market is currently witnessing a steady growth in demand, driven by record-high defence budget allocations in the region. Lithuania’s 2026 state budget allocates 5.38% of GDP to national defence, supported by a total defence envelope of €4.79 billion. Such high-level budget allocation gives procurement agencies the fiscal flexibility to ensure continuous funding for artillery ammunition production lines, facilitating multi-year contracting and more ambitious war reserve targets. Estonia also maintains its defence budget at a minimum of 5% of GDP from 2026 onwards, ensuring continuous funding for core consumables such as 155mm artillery shells. Latvia further cements this regional defence posture, allocating its 2026 defence budget of 4.9% of GDP according to NATO’s definition.
The net impact of such high-level budget allocations for all three Baltic countries cumulatively ensures that stockpile replenishment and live-fire training programs are routine and well-funded. Demand for conventional 155mm artillery shells is thus structurally supported by political will to sustain deterrence in NATO’s eastern flank. The defence spending paths of the Baltic countries are aligned with NATO capability goals, indicating a procurement environment that supports consistent volume purchasing, planning, and contract renewal on a regular basis, thus ensuring a stable and growing demand base for suppliers and manufacturers operating in this market.
Baltic States 155mm Artillery Shells Market Challenge
Concentrated Industrial Base and Supply Chain Bottlenecks Constraining Procurement Timelines
Despite the strong demand, the Baltic states’ 155mm artillery shells market is challenged by strong structural barriers arising from the small number of European ammunition manufacturers. A mapping exercise by the EU Defence Joint Procurement Task Force has revealed that there are only 15 eligible ammunition manufacturers in 11 Member States of the EU, creating a concentration problem that makes it difficult to meet the surge demand when several countries simultaneously attempt to purchase ammunition. When the demand is high, the buyers compete for the same resources such as energetics, casings, and filling line capacity, leading to long lead times and complex contract negotiations for the Baltic states’ end users.
Because of the shared nature of the procurement queues, even the best-funded buyers experience pressure on their procurement schedules due to external demand sources. Although the European Commission has made efforts to address this challenge by choosing 31 projects worth €500 million under the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), which includes projects on explosives, powder, shells, missiles, and testing/reconditioning, these projects will take time to increase capacity. Until then, the Baltic states’ procurement agencies will have to deal with tight tender schedules, delivery risks, and coordination with other allied countries to avoid conflicts of supply, adding complexity to what could otherwise be simple replenishment programs.
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Baltic States 155mm Artillery Shells Market Trend
Shift Toward Programme-Style Volume Pledges Reshaping Procurement Structures Across the Region
One of the key trends that are currently changing the Baltic states’ 155mm artillery shells market is the shift from one-off procurement events to program-style volume commitments expressed in round counts and tracked at the institutional level. The EU High Representative’s statement after the Foreign Affairs Council meeting confirmed that 80% of the commitments needed under the “2 million round” initiative had already been met for the year, indicating the extent to which this trend has taken root. For the Baltic states’ end users, this trend has important strategic implications: as round counts become the norm, suppliers are increasingly focusing on scalable and standard configurations and longer production runs rather than smaller orders.
This shift simultaneously enhances the planning discipline for the manufacturing sector while increasing the risks for smaller buyers who are now forced to move earlier in the procurement chain in order to secure allocation into larger European lots. Baltic procurers are thus forced to adapt by locking in orders before the peak demand, engaging in joint procurement schemes wherever possible, and harmonizing technical requirements to fit cleanly into larger continental procurement lots. The increasing institutionalization of volume commitments is thus having a profoundly transformative effect on the nature of Baltic defence agencies’ engagement with the ammunition procurement chain, requiring increased foresight, coordination, and harmonization with pan-European defence procurement cycles.
Baltic States 155mm Artillery Shells Market Opportunity
Regional Manufacturing Investment and Local Supply Chain Integration Opening Strategic Growth Avenues
The most attractive near-term opportunity within the 155mm artillery shells market in the Baltic states exists within the increasingly localised production capacity within the region. The historic agreement between Rheinmetall and Lithuania to build a dedicated 155mm artillery ammunition production facility in Baisogala is a watershed moment, establishing an industrial base in close proximity to end users and NATO logistics infrastructure. With a noted investment volume of €180 million, 150 direct jobs, and a land area of approximately 340 hectares, the new facility is of a sufficient size to have a material impact on the regional supply chain and mitigate reliance on more remote European production centers.
The presence of this facility opens up a chain of opportunities in the local industry. Metalworking companies, packaging companies, logistics companies, and testing service companies are likely to benefit from subcontracting opportunities that will arise as a result of the operational needs of the facility. For Baltic end users, the facility will ensure that they are not dependent on cross-border logistical delays and will have direct visibility into the scheduling and quality control of the products. As the facility grows, it is expected to ensure that the region has a secure supply of ammunition, will attract more investments in the defense sector, and will make Lithuania and the Baltic region increasingly self-sufficient in the European ammunition resupply network of NATO.
Baltic States 155mm Artillery Shells Market Country Analysis
By Country
- Estonia
- Latvia
- Lithuania
Among the three Baltic states, Lithuania has the largest market share in the regional 155mm artillery shells market, contributing around 40% to the overall Baltic market demand. This dominant market position is directly related to Lithuania's high defence spending profile, where the country's 2026 state budget has allocated 5.38% of GDP to national defence, with a total defence budget of €4.79 billion. The level of this commitment enables Lithuanian procurement agencies to commit earlier to large lots of ammunition, maintain a higher live-fire training rate, and negotiate multi-year contracting arrangements that provide greater pricing certainty and supply assurance than shorter-term procurement cycles.
Industrial momentum further cements Lithuania's leading position in the Baltic market. The start of construction work on the Rheinmetall-Lithuania 155mm ammunition production facility in Baisogala, supported by a €180 million investment and 150 new jobs, establishes a robust domestic supply base that lessens import reliance and improves the overall security of supply position in the country. Estonia and Latvia, while maintaining high procurement activity consistent with their respective GDP-linked defence spending commitments of at least 5% and 4.9%, respectively, operate at a slightly smaller scale. However, all three countries make a significant contribution to a regionally cohesive demand base that is expected to support healthy market activity over the forecast period.
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Baltic States 155mm Artillery Shells Market Segmentation Analysis
By Shell Type
- High-Explosive (HE/HE-FRAG) Shell
- Smoke Shell
- Illumination Shell
- Training/Practice Shell
- Other Special-Purpose Shell
In the Baltic states’ 155mm artillery shells market, the Shell Type category shows a clear focus on High-Explosive (HE/HE-FRAG) variants, which currently comprise around 60% of the total market share. This is due to the flexibility of HE rounds, which are currently the go-to ammunition type for a variety of fire missions, including suppression, breaching, and general area fire, without the need for mission-specific modifications or additional equipment. The universal compatibility of HE/HE-FRAG shells with all NATO-standard 155mm platforms further cements their status as the workhorse of Baltic ammunition stocks.
In terms of procurement, the simplicity of HE rounds allows Baltic end users to order in greater volume and with greater confidence, facilitating faster inventory turns and more predictable replenishment cycles. Additionally, the standardized nature of HE/HE-FRAG shells allows suppliers to offer them in high-volume production runs, further improving both cost and delivery efficiency. As such, procurement teams will always prioritize HE variants in the assembly of both routine training stocks and contingency stockpiles, supplementing these with specialized shell types such as smoke, illumination, or precision-extended range variants only when scenario-specific requirements dictate the added expense and complexity.
By Guidance
- Unguided
- Precision-Guided
The Guidance component of the Baltic states 155mm artillery shells market is strongly biased towards unguided shells, which comprise about 85% of the overall market share. This is because unguided shells have remained a practical choice for the overall training and area fire mission profiles. The Baltic end users purchase unguided shells in order to add depth to their inventory at a reasonable per-unit cost, with the unguided shells' simpler design directly correlating to lower per-unit outlay in comparison to precision-guided shells. This difference in cost is especially important when considering the large quantities of shells that need to be purchased in order to maintain the active training pipelines and strategic reserves.
Aside from the cost factor, the unguided shells also have a number of meaningful logistical and operational advantages that serve to further solidify their overall market dominance. The simpler design of the unguided shells correlates to easier storage and handling procedures, as well as faster acceptance testing at the point of delivery. The unguided shells are also compatible with existing fire control systems and can be easily integrated with allied fire procedures, further simplifying their integration into joint training operations. These factors make bulk purchases, rotation, and inventory management easier for the Baltic end users. The guided shells, while useful for precision strikes against high-value targets, serve as a complementary component to the unguided shell core of the Baltic states' overall ammunition inventory.
Various Market Players in Baltic States 155mm Artillery Shells Market
The companies mentioned below are highly active in the Baltic States 155mm artillery shells market, occupying a considerable portion of the market and shaping industry progress.
- Nammo AS
- Rheinmetall AG
- KNDS (Nexter)
Market News & Updates
- Rheinmetall AG, 2025:
Rheinmetall held a groundbreaking on 4 November 2025 for a new 155mm artillery ammunition plant in Baisogala, Lithuania, to be run by the JV Rheinmetall Defence Lietuva; the company states up to €300 million investment, ~150 jobs, and “several tens of thousands” of 155mm shells per year, with the site targeted to enter operation as early as 2026 (followed by qualification through end-2026 and ramp-up thereafter). For the Baltic States 155mm shells market, this is a structural supply-side shift: it localizes forging/filling capacity on NATO’s eastern flank, reduces reliance on Western European throughput, shortens lead times for national stockpiling, and creates a credible “surge node” that can anchor longer-term framework demand from Lithuania and partners as regional artillery modernization accelerates.
- Rheinmetall AG, 2025:
On 25 September 2025, Rheinmetall signed an MoU with Latvia (in the presence of Latvia’s Prime Minister) to build a modern 155mm artillery ammunition production facility in Latvia via a 51/49 JV between Rheinmetall Waffe Munition GmbH and Latvia’s State Defence Corporation; Rheinmetall highlights €275 million investment, a state-of-the-art forging and filling line, and output in the tens of thousands of shells per year, with construction planned for spring 2026 and production expected ~one year later. Market impact is twofold: it adds a second Baltic production pillar (raising regional resilience through geographic dispersion and dual-site redundancy) and strengthens Latvia’s “security-of-supply” positioning—shifting it from a pure buyer to a partial producer that can support domestic readiness while also contributing capacity to allied procurement pools when demand spikes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Related Report
1. Market Segmentation
1.1. Research Scope
1.2. Research Methodology
1.3. Definitions and Assumptions
2. Executive Summary
3. Baltic States 155mm Artillery Shells Market Policies, Regulations, and Standards
4. Baltic States 155mm Artillery Shells Market Dynamics
4.1. Growth Factors
4.2. Challenges
4.3. Trends
4.4. Opportunities
5. Baltic States 155mm Artillery Shells Market Statistics, 2022-2032F
5.1. Market Size & Growth Outlook
5.1.1.By Revenues in USD Million
5.2. Market Segmentation & Growth Outlook
5.2.1.By Shell Type
5.2.1.1. High-Explosive (HE/HE-FRAG) Shell- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.1.2. Smoke Shell- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.1.3. Illumination Shell- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.1.4. Training/Practice Shell- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.1.5. Other Special-Purpose Shell- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.2.By Guidance
5.2.2.1. Unguided - Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.2.2. Precision-Guided - Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.3.By Range Class
5.2.3.1. Standard Range - Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.3.2. Extended Range - Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.3.3. Assisted Range- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.3.3.1. Base Bleed- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.3.3.2. Rocket-Assisted (RAP)- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.4.By Operational Use
5.2.4.1. Training Consumption- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.4.2. Routine Peacetime Stockpile Replenishment- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.4.3. Active Conflict Replenishment\Urgent Operational Demand- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.4.4. Strategic Reserve\Surge Inventory Build- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.5.By Artillery Platform Type
5.2.5.1. Towed Howitzers- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.5.2. Self-Propelled Howitzers- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.5.3. Truck-Mounted Howitzers- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
5.2.6.By Country
5.2.6.1. Estonia
5.2.6.2. Latvia
5.2.6.3. Lithuania
5.2.7.By Competitors
5.2.7.1. Competition Characteristics
5.2.7.2. Market Share & Analysis
6. Estonia 155mm Artillery Shells Market Statistics, 2022-2032F
6.1. Market Size & Growth Outlook
6.1.1.By Revenues in USD Million
6.2. Market Segmentation & Growth Outlook
6.2.1.By Shell Type- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
6.2.2.By Guidance- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
6.2.3.By Range Class - Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
6.2.4.By Operational Use - Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
6.2.5.By Artillery Platform Type - Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
7. Latvia 155mm Artillery Shells Market Statistics, 2022-2032F
7.1. Market Size & Growth Outlook
7.1.1.By Revenues in USD Million
7.2. Market Segmentation & Growth Outlook
7.2.1.By Shell Type- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
7.2.2.By Guidance- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
7.2.3.By Range Class - Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
7.2.4.By Operational Use - Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
7.2.5.By Artillery Platform Type - Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
8. Lithuania 155mm Artillery Shells Market Statistics, 2022-2032F
8.1. Market Size & Growth Outlook
8.1.1.By Revenues in USD Million
8.2. Market Segmentation & Growth Outlook
8.2.1.By Shell Type- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
8.2.2.By Guidance- Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
8.2.3.By Range Class - Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
8.2.4.By Operational Use - Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
8.2.5.By Artillery Platform Type - Market Insights and Forecast 2022-2032, USD Million
9. Competitive Outlook
9.1. Company Profiles
9.1.1.Rheinmetall
9.1.1.1. Business Description
9.1.1.2. Product Portfolio
9.1.1.3. Collaborations & Alliances
9.1.1.4. Recent Developments
9.1.1.5. Financial Details
9.1.1.6. Others
9.1.2.KNDS (Nexter)
9.1.2.1. Business Description
9.1.2.2. Product Portfolio
9.1.2.3. Collaborations & Alliances
9.1.2.4. Recent Developments
9.1.2.5. Financial Details
9.1.2.6. Others
9.1.3.Nammo AS
9.1.3.1. Business Description
9.1.3.2. Product Portfolio
9.1.3.3. Collaborations & Alliances
9.1.3.4. Recent Developments
9.1.3.5. Financial Details
9.1.3.6. Others
9.1.4.Others
9.1.4.1. Business Description
9.1.4.2. Product Portfolio
9.1.4.3. Collaborations & Alliances
9.1.4.4. Recent Developments
9.1.4.5. Financial Details
9.1.4.6. Others
10. Disclaimer
| Segment | Sub-Segment |
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| By Shell Type |
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| By Guidance |
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| By Range Class |
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| By Operational Use |
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| By Artillery Platform Type |
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| By Country |
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Research Methodology
This study followed a structured approach comprising four key phases to assess the size and scope of the electro-oxidation market. The process began with thorough secondary research to collect data on the target market, related markets, and broader industry context. These findings, along with preliminary assumptions and estimates, were then validated through extensive primary research involving industry experts from across the value chain. To calculate the overall market size, both top-down and bottom-up methodologies were employed. Finally, market segmentation and data triangulation techniques were applied to refine and validate segment-level estimations.
Secondary Research
The secondary research phase involved gathering data from a wide range of credible and published sources. This step helped in identifying industry trends, defining market segmentation, and understanding the market landscape and value chain.
Sources consulted during this phase included:
- Company annual reports, investor presentations, and press releases
- Industry white papers and certified publications
- Trade directories and market-recognized databases
- Articles from authoritative authors and reputable journals
- Gold and silver standard websites
Secondary research was critical in mapping out the industry's value chain and monetary flow, identifying key market segments, understanding regional variations, and tracking significant industry developments.
Other key sources:
- Financial disclosures
- Industry associations and trade bodies
- News outlets and business magazines
- Academic journals and research studies
- Paid industry databases
Primary Research
To validate secondary data and gain deeper market insights, primary research was conducted with key stakeholders across both the supply and demand sides of the market.
On the demand side, participants included decision-makers and influencers from end-user industries—such as CIOs, CTOs, and CSOs—who provided first-hand perspectives on market needs, product usage, and future expectations.
On the supply side, interviews were conducted with manufacturers, industry associations, and institutional participants to gather insights into current offerings, product pipelines, and market challenges.
Primary interviews provided critical inputs such as:
- Market size and revenue data
- Product and service breakdowns
- Market forecasts
- Regional and application-specific trends
Stakeholders consulted included:
- Leading OEM and solution providers
- Channel and distribution partners
- End users across various applications
- Independent consultants and industry specialists
Market Size Estimation and Data Triangulation
- Identifying Key Market Participants (Secondary Research)
- Goal: To identify the major players or companies in the target market. This typically involves using publicly available data sources such as industry reports, market research publications, and financial statements of companies.
- Tools: Reports from firms like Gartner, Forrester, Euromonitor, Statista, IBISWorld, and others. Public financial statements, news articles, and press releases from top market players.
- Extracting Earnings of Key Market Participants
- Goal: To estimate the earnings generated from the product or service being analyzed. This step helps in understanding the revenue potential of each market player in a specific geography.
- Methods: Earnings data can be gathered from:
- Publicly available financial reports (for listed companies).
- Interviews and primary data sources from professionals, such as Directors, VPs, SVPs, etc. This is especially useful for understanding more nuanced, internal data that isn't publicly disclosed.
- Annual reports and investor presentations of key players.
- Data Collation and Development of a Relevant Data Model
- Goal: To collate inputs from both primary and secondary sources into a structured, data-driven model for market estimation. This model will incorporate key market KPIs and any independent variables relevant to the market.
- Key KPIs: These could include:
- Market size, growth rate, and demand drivers.
- Industry-specific metrics like market share, average revenue per customer (ARPC), or average deal size.
- External variables, such as economic growth rates, inflation rates, or commodity prices, that could affect the market.
- Data Modeling: Based on this data, the market forecasts are developed for the next 5 years. A combination of trend analysis, scenario modeling, and statistical regression might be used to generate projections.
- Scenario Analysis
- Goal: To test different assumptions and validate how sensitive the market is to changes in key variables (e.g., market demand, regulatory changes, technological disruptions).
- Types of Scenarios:
- Base Case: Based on current assumptions and historical data.
- Best-Case Scenario: Assuming favorable market conditions, regulatory environments, and technological advancements.
- Worst-Case Scenario: Accounting for adverse factors, such as economic downturns, stricter regulations, or unexpected disruptions.
